Staking Plan

A strategy where you back multiple selections in the same market with different bookmakers, distributing stakes to ensure the same profit regardless of which selection wins. Unlike arbitrage, Dutching does not guarantee a profit on every outcome but can distribute risk while targeting specific outcomes you consider underpriced.

The practice of comparing odds across multiple bookmakers before placing a bet to find the best available price. Even small differences in odds compound into significant profit over time. For example, getting 2.10 instead of 2.00 on hundreds of bets dramatically improves your long-term return. Line shopping is one of the simplest edges available.

The difference between the odds at which you placed a bet and the final closing odds. If you consistently get better odds than the closing line, you are likely a profitable bettor. CLV is considered the single best predictor of long-term betting profitability, even more reliable than short-term results.

A strategy that exploits odds differences between bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. By placing proportional bets on all possible outcomes across different bookmakers, the bettor locks in a risk-free return. For example, if one bookmaker offers Home at 2.20 and another offers Away at 2.10, the combined margin may allow a guaranteed profit.

A statistical probability distribution commonly used to model the number of goals, points, or events in a sports match. By estimating the expected average (lambda) of events, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. events occurring. It is the foundation of many football betting models.

A standardized bet amount used to measure and compare betting performance. One unit typically represents 1-2% of your total bankroll. Using units allows bettors to track performance consistently regardless of the absolute amounts wagered. For example, being up 50 units conveys a clear picture of profitability.