Home › Glossary › Fading
Strategies

Fading

A contrarian strategy of betting against the public or popular opinion. The theory is that bookmakers shade their lines toward the popular side, creating value on the less popular outcome. Fading works best in high-profile events where public money heavily influences the line in one direction.

Related Strategies Terms

Risk of Ruin (RoR)
The probability that a bettor will lose their entire bankroll given their edge, bet size, and number of bets. Even profitable bettors face risk of ruin if they stake too large a percentage of their bankroll. Reducing unit size dramatically lowers risk of ruin. A common target is keeping RoR below 1%.
Unit Size (Unit)
A standardized bet amount used to measure and compare betting performance. One unit typically represents 1-2% of your total bankroll. Using units allows bettors to track performance consistently regardless of the absolute amounts wagered. For example, being up 50 units conveys a clear picture of profitability.
Staking Plan
A predefined system that determines how much to bet on each wager based on specific criteria. Common staking plans include flat staking, percentage of bankroll, Kelly Criterion, and level stakes. A disciplined staking plan is essential for long-term profitability and protecting your bankroll from large drawdowns.
Hedging
A strategy of placing additional bets to reduce risk on an existing wager, often locking in a guaranteed profit or minimizing a potential loss. For example, if you have a parlay where only the final leg is pending, you can bet on the opposing outcome to guarantee some profit regardless of the result.
Flat Staking
A staking strategy where the same amount is wagered on every bet, regardless of the odds or perceived edge. For example, always betting 2% of your initial bankroll. Flat staking is simple, limits risk, and is suitable for bettors who are not confident in precisely estimating probabilities.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The difference between the odds at which you placed a bet and the final closing odds. If you consistently get better odds than the closing line, you are likely a profitable bettor. CLV is considered the single best predictor of long-term betting profitability, even more reliable than short-term results.
← Back to Glossary